Impact monitoring of ‘aid for trade’ programmes such as TRTA II is becoming an increasing interesting area. The governments and their trade/development partners are looking to measure impact of programmes as accurately as possible. This level of assessment is not an easy task as the economy is experiencing several impacts simultaneously. Quantifying for the attributed impact of a a specific activity is always difficult.
UNIDO has initiated an effort under the TRTA II to monitor for attributed impact. UNIDO in close consultation with an internationally reputable name Professor Spencer Henson will be developing a programme level guide to assess attributed impact under TRTA II. The guide will contain specific methods that can be applied during the TRTA II programme to assess attributed impact. The pilot case studies will focus on assessing if the interventions are making an impact towards the broader goal of poverty alleviation and export growth envisaged under the TRTA II. The techniques will involve both scientific and non-scientific methodologies to assess attribution. For example, the techniques may include use of randomization trials to access impacts on trade and poverty.
Moreover, in the guide UNIDO will aim at developing a framework of indicators that is specific for TRTA II but can also be replicated for other ‘aid for trade’ programmes. These indicators will be set at each level of the impact chain and will be such that they can derive change and manage results under the programme. UNIDO intends to finalise this guide at the start of the programme so that it allows slight nudging of the programme level interventions in light of monitoring for impact requirements. The guide is under preparation and will be uploaded on the website in the next few weeks.